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Starship Moon landing may need 22 launches, Ars Technica reports

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Starship Moon landing may need 22 launches, Ars Technica reports

Ars Technica reports on the number of Starship launches needed to fuel a Starship-based lunar lander in low-Earth orbit, so that it can fly to the Moon, land, and return to lunar orbit. The article says NASA guards this number closely, and that it has been a moving target over the years. The usual NASA response has been that the agency does not know for sure and so will not say.

The article gives the history. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, then director of NASA's Human Landing System, told Ars: "We have a general idea, but I'm reluctant to say exactly what that is." Later, she put the number in the "high single digits to the low double digits." The author reads that as about a dozen launches, "which is a lot." In that scenario SpaceX would launch one "depot" Starship and then 11 "tanker" Starships to fill it with liquid oxygen and methane propellant for a lunar voyage. Other officials have said "high teens."

The hope, the author writes, has always been that SpaceX would dramatically improve Starship's lift capacity and so cut the number of tanker flights. Now some NASA officials are concerned that this improvement might not be happening, or not soon enough for Starship to play a meaningful role in returning humans to the Moon for NASA under Artemis this decade.

Under the subhead "A new estimate emerges," the article says the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel held its quarterly meeting on Thursday. Panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, spoke there about risks tied to the Artemis Program and landing humans on the Moon. The article's headline gives the latest estimate as 22 launches. The text available here cuts off before the estimate itself is stated, so how Precourt framed it and what it rests on are not covered.

Key facts

  • Ars Technica's headline gives the latest estimate of Starship launches needed to support a Moon landing as 22.
  • The figure came up at the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel's quarterly meeting on Thursday, where panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, discussed Artemis risks.
  • An earlier reading of NASA comments implied about a dozen launches: one depot Starship plus 11 tanker Starships. Other officials have said "high teens."
  • Some NASA officials worry that SpaceX's hoped-for gains in Starship lift capacity may not arrive soon enough for a meaningful role in Artemis this decade.

Why it matters

The launch count measures how hard the Starship lander plan is. Every tanker flight is another launch that must succeed before a crew can leave Earth orbit for the Moon. The article describes a number that has drifted from about a dozen toward the high teens and, per the headline, 22. It also says the plan leans on a hoped-for jump in Starship's lift capacity, and that some NASA officials doubt it will come in time for Artemis this decade.

Who it affects

NASA's Artemis program and its Human Landing System effort, SpaceX as the builder of the Starship lander, tanker and depot vehicles, and the astronauts and planners who depend on the lunar landing schedule. The Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel is the forum where the new figure surfaced.

How to use it

This is a reading note, not a product. When you see later launch-count figures for Artemis, compare them with the baselines in this piece: about a dozen (one depot plus 11 tankers), "high teens," and now 22. Check whether each figure assumes improved Starship lift capacity.

How solid is it

Mixed. The history is attributed: the 2023 quote from Lisa Watson-Morgan, her later "high single digits to the low double digits" range, and the "high teens" from other officials. The "about a dozen" reading is the author's own. The new estimate is the weak point. The visible text is truncated and does not state it; the figure 22 comes from the article's headline. What Precourt said about the number and its basis is not in the available text.

Risks and caveats

The 22 figure is an estimate tied to a panel discussion, not a NASA announcement in the available text, and no SpaceX or NASA response appears there. No timescale for Starship lift-capacity improvements is given. The article's concern about the schedule is attributed to "some NASA officials," so it should not be read as agency policy.

“We have a general idea, but I’m reluctant to say exactly what that is.”

— Lisa Watson-Morgan, then director of NASA's Human Landing System, to Ars in 2023