Apollo economist Slok says AI has delivered 'zero financial payoff' outside big tech
Torsten Slok, the chief economist at Apollo Global Management, says AI has not helped the bottom line of big US corporations outside the technology industry. TechCrunch reports on a note he recently published. Apollo is the private equity giant that used to own TechCrunch.
Slok's analysis centres on what he calls the S&P 493: the S&P 500 with seven companies removed, namely Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. In that group, as TechCrunch describes his findings, profit margins and revenue per worker appear to be flat, with no evidence that AI is improving productivity. In his words: "Despite massive investments and widespread hype around artificial intelligence, the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech."
TechCrunch asks the obvious objection: is this just non-tech companies lagging behind the tech giants? Slok sounded skeptical of that explanation. He argued it will be tough for corporate America to "turn increasingly cheap intelligence into higher revenue growth and higher profit margins."
His reasoning is that business runs on judgment rather than calculation. "AI may be a great calculator, but in business, intelligence is mostly judgment," he wrote. He later added: "AI does not understand accountability, trust, culture, unwritten rules, ethical trade-offs or fairness, all of which shape reputational risk and ultimately drive revenue growth and profit margins."
TechCrunch closes by noting that recent studies have also found AI has yet to deliver significant productivity gains. It does not name those studies.
Key facts
- Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok says AI has delivered 'zero financial payoff' to corporate America outside of tech.
- His basis is the 'S&P 493': the S&P 500 minus Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.
- In that group, profit margins and revenue per worker appear to be flat, with no evidence that AI is improving productivity.
- Slok sounded skeptical that this is only a matter of non-tech firms lagging; he argues that turning cheap intelligence into higher revenue growth and margins will be tough.
- His core argument: 'AI may be a great calculator, but in business, intelligence is mostly judgment.'
Why it matters
Much of the AI investment story rests on the promise that the technology will lift revenue and margins across the economy, not just at the companies that build it. Slok's note says that, so far, the payoff is not visible in the broad group of large US companies outside seven tech giants. His argument also goes beyond timing: he doubts that the gap is simply late adoption, and says it will be tough to turn cheap intelligence into higher revenue growth and margins.
Who it affects
Executives and investors at large non-tech US companies that are spending on AI, since the note speaks directly to whether those outlays show up in margins and revenue per worker. It also bears on anyone weighing the AI boom against its financial returns. The seven excluded companies (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) are the ones set aside as the tech side of the comparison.
How to use it
This is an argument to weigh, not a tool or a product. A practical reading is to treat Slok's framing as a test: when a company claims AI gains, ask whether they appear in profit margins and revenue per worker, the two measures he points to. His point that business depends on accountability, trust, culture, unwritten rules, ethical trade-offs and fairness is a prompt to ask which of a company's tasks are judgment rather than calculation.
How solid is it
The conclusion comes from a single note by one economist, relayed through a short TechCrunch item. No profit-margin or revenue-per-worker figures are given; only that they 'appear to be flat'. The time period analysed is not stated, and no exact date or title for the note is given. The recent studies TechCrunch mentions are not named and no figures from them are given. TechCrunch also discloses that Apollo used to own it. Treat this as a data-informed view rather than a settled finding.
Risks and caveats
'Appear to be flat' is cautious wording, and the headline claim of 'zero financial payoff' is Slok's own strong phrasing. Flat aggregate margins do not by themselves show what caused them, and the source does not explain how Slok measured AI's effect beyond margins and revenue per worker. The source does not say Slok claims AI will never pay off; he is described as skeptical that it will be easy. No reaction from the excluded tech companies or other companies is reported.
“AI may be a great calculator, but in business, intelligence is mostly judgment”
— Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management