Sierra Club: US power-sector CO2 could rise 42% by 2030 on data center gas build-out
The US power sector could release 42 percent more carbon dioxide by 2030 than it did in 2025, according to a new analysis by the Sierra Club reported by The Verge. The driver is the fossil fuel infrastructure being built to meet electricity demand from data centers. The article says that would essentially wipe out 15 years of greenhouse gas reductions.
The analysis also gives an absolute number. CO2 emissions from electricity generation would increase by 618 million tons by the end of the decade if planned AI projects are constructed. The article puts that roughly on par with the carbon pollution from a year of electricity use in 128,788,523 homes.
The Sierra Club's estimate is higher than some previous projections from other groups. One example is a study by academic researchers published in June, which forecast that electricity demand from data centers and crypto mines could push up power sector emissions by 28 percent by 2030. That comparison is against a scenario with no data center growth, not against 2025. The article says the outcome depends on how many planned data center projects actually come to fruition, and on what type of technology is used to power those facilities.
The article sets this against a longer trend. Net US greenhouse gas emissions fell from a peak of about 6.58 billion metric tons in 2007 to about 5.35 billion metric tons in 2025. But that pollution started ticking back up last year as data centers drove up electricity demand. The article describes the Trump administration as incentivising the build-out of fossil fuel infrastructure for data centers while rolling back pollution regulations and stalling renewable energy projects.
A separate report published this month by the Environmental Defense Fund says the US is now planning to build more fossil fuel capacity than it has in a decade.
Key facts
- A Sierra Club analysis says US power-sector CO2 could be 42 percent higher in 2030 than in 2025 as fossil fuel capacity is built for data center demand.
- CO2 from electricity generation would rise by 618 million tons by the end of the decade if planned AI projects are constructed, roughly the annual electricity-use emissions of 128,788,523 homes.
- A June academic study forecast a 28 percent rise in power sector emissions by 2030 from data centers and crypto mines, measured against a scenario with no data center growth.
- Net US greenhouse gas emissions fell from about 6.58 billion metric tons in 2007 to about 5.35 billion in 2025, but began rising again last year, per the article.
- An Environmental Defense Fund report this month says the US is planning more fossil fuel capacity than it has in a decade.
Why it matters
Net US greenhouse gas emissions had been trending down for years, from about 6.58 billion metric tons in 2007 to about 5.35 billion in 2025. The Sierra Club analysis says data center demand could reverse that. The article says a 42 percent rise in power-sector CO2 would essentially wipe out 15 years of reductions. It also notes that the Sierra Club's figure is higher than some earlier projections from other groups, including a June academic study that forecast 28 percent.
Who it affects
The article ties the projected increase to the US power sector and to the fossil fuel plants being built to serve data centers. It names the Trump administration as incentivising that build-out while rolling back pollution regulations and stalling renewable energy projects. No specific companies or data center projects are named in the piece.
How to use it
Read the numbers as a scenario, not a forecast. The 42 percent figure is a rise relative to the 2025 level; the 618 million tons is an absolute increase by the end of the decade, tied to planned AI projects being constructed. The 28 percent figure from the June academic study uses a different baseline, a no-data-center-growth scenario, so it should not be set side by side with the 42 percent as if both were measured against 2025.
How solid is it
The source is a news report on a new Sierra Club analysis. The article does not name the analysis's authors or give its title or publication date. The wording is conditional throughout: the power sector "could" release more, and the 618 million ton increase applies "if planned AI projects are constructed". The article contrasts it with other projections, with the academic study at 28 percent, and adds a separate Environmental Defense Fund report on planned fossil fuel capacity.
Risks and caveats
The article says the outcome depends on how many planned data center projects actually come to fruition and on what type of technology powers them, so the real figure could differ widely from the headline number. It does not say how many gas plants or how much capacity are planned. The household comparison (128,788,523 homes) is an equivalence the article gives for scale, not a separate finding.
“Gas plants built for data centers are poised to undo more than a decade of climate action.”
— The Verge, standfirst